Model backing Charlotte to cover on March 5, 2025

The Charlotte Hornets (14-46) have lost seven games in a row, and the Minnesota Timberwolves (34-29) will look to continue the Hornets’ misery when the two teams meet as part of Wednesday’s NBA schedule. Minnesota is aiming for its third straight victory as it looks to keep pace in a crowded Western Conference playoff picture, with the Wolves the current No. 7 seed but just 1.5 games ahead of the No. 10 seed. These teams have alternated wins and losses over their last four meetings, with Minnesota winning the last contest, 114-93, in a home matchup on Nov. 4.

Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Minnesota is favored by 9 points in the latest Hornets vs. Timberwolves odds, according to the SportsLine consensus. The over/under is 223.5 points.

SportsLine’s proven model has simulated Timberwolves vs. Hornets 10,000 times and revealed its best bets for this game. See all the NBA picks from SportsLine right here.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 20 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 147-107 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 18-10 (64%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

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Here are the NBA best bets for Hornets vs. Timberwolves on Wednesday:

Hornets +9 (-110)
The spread splits heavily favor the Hornets, who will have all of their healthy players available after LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams missed time recently, slotting them into a lineup next to Miles Bridges, who is coming off a 35-point outing that was one off matching his season-high. Charlotte has covered in 60% of games as a home underdog, which is the third-highest rate in the East, while Minnesota has covered in just 40% of games as a favorite, which is the third-lowest rate in the West. Additionally, Charlotte has owned the spread advantage in recent matchups, going 7-2-1 versus the line in its last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves. See all of the model’s Wednesday NBA picks here.

The Pick: Hornets +9 — Charlotte covers in 62% of the model’s simulations
Projected final score: Timberwolves 108, Hornets 105

Bonus Wednesday NBA pick: Alex “PropStarz” Selesnick is on a sizzling 84-56 (+1597.5) roll on his last 140 NBA player props picks. He has a prop on Mark Williams’ scoring total in this matchup. See what he likes right here.

Under 223.5 (-110)
No team favors the Under as much as Charlotte as the Under is a league-best 38-22 (63.3%) for the team this season. Each of its last three contests have gone under, while the Under is 11-9 for the Wolves against Eastern Conference opponents, compared to it being 18-25 versus fellow West teams. The Timberwolves could also be dealing with tired legs as not only are they on the second night of a back-to-back, but they are playing in their fifth road game over their last six matchups. Anthony Edwards is shooting under 40% over his last eight games, and the model has him scoring four fewer points than his season average, contributing to the Under hitting. See all of the model’s Wednesday NBA picks here.

TODAY
Minnesota
Charlotte
-8.5 -110
+8.5 -110
-342
+272
O225.5 -112
U225.5 -108
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The Pick: Under 223.5 — The Under hits in 72.5% of simulations, with 213 projected points
Projected final score: Timberwolves 108, Hornets 105

Bonus Wednesday NBA pick: Jason La Canfora is on a 13-2 (+1115.5) roll on his last 15 NBA picks. He has a money line pick for Pistons vs. Clippers at 10:30 p.m. ET. See who he likes right here.

Want more NBA picks for Friday?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA best bets for Timberwolves vs. Hornets. Now, get picks for every game from SportsLine’s model that’s on a 147-107 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, including an outstanding 18-10 (64%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Visit SportsLine to get all of its picks for Wednesday right here.

Also be sure to see the Wednesday NBA picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall. He’s on a 30-16 (+1232) run on NBA picks and you visit SportsLine here to get all his picks.

Where to bet on NBA games
Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on NBA games today, along with the various NBA sportsbook promos they currently offer.

Nico Harrison’s short-term plan for the Mavericks is already blowing up in his face

Barely a month ago, the Dallas Mavericks pulled a dumbfounding move in trading superstar Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers for a minuscule package centered around Anthony Davis. The day immediately following the news, Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison held a press conference to discuss the deal that is still sending shockwaves throughout the league.

Fans searched for contrition and reassurance in Harrison’s words. At the very least, a credible explanation as to why the franchise traded away a 26-year-old generational talent who is fresh off leading that exact team to the NBA Finals just nine months earlier. Instead, Harrison hammered on the idea that “defense wins championships,” subtlety jabbing Dončić by saying Davis “added” to the culture of what he and the Mavericks were trying to build.

Rumors and reports have been non-stop as to the reasoning behind Dallas’ decision, which have mostly been aimed at tearing down Dončić as a player, calling into question his commitment to staying in shape, his failure as a lockdown defender and his penchant for enjoying his free time by drinking beer — as if every other Hall of Fame player in league history treated their body like a temple.

Mavericks have no choice but to tank rest of season (and maybe next year, too) after losing Kyrie Irving
Jasmyn Wimbish
Mavericks have no choice but to tank rest of season (and maybe next year, too) after losing Kyrie Irving
Both Harrison and Mavericks governor Patrick Dumont have used the work ethic of Kobe Bryant and his “Mamba Mentality” motto as the standard of what they want out of their players going forward, something that, according to both of them, Dončić did not fit into.

But even putting aside the flimsy reasons as to why Harrison decided to pull the trigger on this deal, the return doesn’t make much sense. Davis is one of the best defenders in the league, and is a top 10 offensive player himself, but he’s also on the wrong side of 30 with an injury history that reads as long as a CVS receipt. By swapping the two players, the Mavericks are essentially mortgaging their future, something that Harrison has made clear that he’s doesn’t care about.

“The future to me is three to four years from now,” Harrison said the day after the trade. “The future ten years from now — they’ll probably bury me and [Mavericks coach Jason Kidd] by then. Or we’ll bury ourselves.”

Well, grab a shovel and start digging. It’s been a month since the trade and Harrison’s short-term plan is already blowing up in his face. Davis has played a total of 31 minutes for the Mavericks after picking up an adductor strain in his very first game in a Dallas uniform. A few games after that, another one of Dallas’ big men went down when Daniel Gafford picked up a knee sprain. Oh, and Dereck Lively II has been out since Jan. 15 with a fracture ankle. The Mavericks got dealt the final death blow earlier this week when the team announced All-Star guard Kyrie Irving sustained an ACL tear in his left knee during the team’s 122-98 loss to the Sacramento Kings, sidelining him for the remainder of the season, and likely most of next season as well.

Late Tuesday, Harrison released a statement about Irving’s injury in which he elicited more praise and emotion than he ever said about Dončić after trading him in the middle of the night. Harrison once again evoked the work ethic of Bryant: “His work ethic and absolute dedication to his craft, it’s cut from the cloth of greats. I know it, I lived it, and I see the same ferocity and passion in him that I saw in Kobe.” Harrison called Irving the “heart and soul” of the Mavericks, and touched on his “evolution and growth” as a player. It basically read as yet another sleight to Dončić, the guy who has carried the Mavericks franchise on his back since the day he was drafted. But I digress.

With Irving’s ACL injury, that four-year future Harrison is only focusing on just evaporated. An ACL tear can take anywhere between 8-12 months to fully heal, so at the latest Irving won’t be available until March 2026. That puts the thought of contending for a championship next season out the window. And that’s assuming Irving even stays in Dallas past this season, as he has a $43.96 million player option he’s able to opt out of to become an unrestricted free agent and sign elsewhere.

That’s Problem 1, and regardless of Irving’s decision to stay or leave, it still doesn’t change the fact that he’s going to miss most, or maybe all of next season. Then we come to our second concern: Anthony Davis. Why would Davis want to waste a season with Dallas when he can try to force a trade elsewhere to a championship-contending team?

There’s nothing to suggest Davis would force a move, but maybe it’s wise for the Mavericks to consider trading the All-Star forward, as my colleague Sam Quinn suggested. If Irving is to miss all of next season, the first time that duo will be available to play together will be in the 2026-27 season, when Davis is 33 and Irving is 34. Banking on both being fully healthy at that time is a massive risk, and all it takes is one more injury to completely derail Harrison’s already harebrained scheme even further.

Davis won’t fetch a massive haul for the Mavericks, though they didn’t get one for Dončić either, and Harrison may be too proud to even trade the guy he just staked his whole career on. But besides all the theoretical ideas about what the Mavericks should do at this juncture, all of this was completely avoidable had Harrison not traded Dončić.

I’m not saying Dončić getting traded led to Irving’s freak injury. But for the last six weeks, Irving led the league in minutes played (38.7). Most of the offensive responsibility fell on his shoulders without Dončić to lean on, and as an undersized veteran guard who loves to get to the rim, the reps start to add up, increasing the likelihood for an injury, though one as catastrophic as this could’ve never been predicted.

But had Irving torn his ACL with Dončić still on the roster, at least that would’ve only dampened the next year and a half for Dallas. Dončić was always the failsafe for the Mavericks, someone who is barely in his prime, and could be rebuilt around if Irving struggled to round back into form. Without him there, the Mavericks are like a sinking ship slowly meeting its inevitable demise with Harrison still trying to convince everyone that what he did was the right decision.

That four-year window Harrison mentioned has quickly turned into a two-year window, and even that’s generous given who they’ve built this team around. He’s more than willing to take the blame if this whole ordeal goes sideways, which you could very well argue it already has, but Harrison’s willingness to take accountability doesn’t ignore the hubris with which he acted when trading Dončić in the first place. And to make matters worse, even if the Mavericks decided to fire Harrison today, the damage he’s caused will be felt throughout this franchise for the better part of the next decade, given that Dallas doesn’t control any of its own first-round picks between 2027 and 2030.

Harrison’s short-term plan has quickly been engulfed by a fiery inferno, and the long-term outlook looks even worse. With the way this is going, Harrison may be relieved of his duties before long, but the Mavericks will be stuck holding the bag while being forced to watch Dončić wear another team’s jersey while continuing his ascension towards one of the greatest players in league history. And Harrison will always be remembered as the guy who sent him in what is already the worst trade in NBA history.

2025 NBA picks, March 5 predictions from proven model

We’ve got another exciting Western Conference matchup on the NBA schedule as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies are set to tip at 9:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday at the FedEx Forum. Memphis is 38-23 overall and 22-9 at home, while Oklahoma City is 50-11 overall and 23-7 on the road. The Thunder have won seven consecutive games against the Grizzlies.

The Thunder are favored by 8.5 points in the latest Thunder vs. Grizzlies odds via SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 250.5 points. Before entering any Grizzlies vs. Thunder picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 20 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 147-107 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 18-10 (64%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Oklahoma City vs. Memphis. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for the game:

Grizzlies vs. Thunder spread: Grizzlies +8.5
Grizzlies vs. Thunder over/under: 250.5 points
Grizzlies vs. Thunder money line: Grizzlies: +268, Thunder: -328
Grizzlies vs. Thunder picks: See picks here
Grizzlies vs. Thunder streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
TODAY
Oklahoma City
Memphis
-8 -109
+8 -111
-321
+257
O252.5 -112
U252.5 -108
Click here to get half-off your first month, quarter, or year of sports picks! Start winning now!
Why the Thunder can cover
The Thunder came out on top against the Rockets by a score of 137-128 on Monday. The Grizzlies better keep an eye on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He was instrumental in the Thunder’s win, going 18-for-30 en route to 51 points, seven assists and five rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 32.6 points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. He’s knocking down 52.5% of his field goals and 37.5% of his 3-point attempts.

The Thunder were working as a unit and finished the game with 31 assists. Oklahoma City has now posted at least 25 assists in eight consecutive matchups. The Thunder are 13-2 in their last 15 games and 6-1 against the spread in their past seven meetings against Memphis. See which team to pick here.

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Why the Grizzlies can cover
The Grizzlies suffered a 132-130 loss to the Hawks on a last-minute shot from Caris LeVert. The Grizzlies didn’t live up to their potential and found themselves falling short of the advantage oddsmakers thought they had coming into the game. Despite the defeat, the Grizzlies got a productive performance from Desmond Bane, who dropped a triple-double with 35 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists.

The Grizzlies are 9-3 in their last 12 games against an opponent from the Western Conference. Memphis is also 7-2 against the spread in its last nine home games against Oklahoma City. See which team to pick here.

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How to make Thunder vs. Grizzlies picks
The model has simulated Grizzlies vs. Thunder 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under the total, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Thunder vs. Grizzlies, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 147-107 roll on top-rated NBA picks since last season, and find out.

Where to bet on NBA games
Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on NBA games today, along with the various NBA sportsbook promos they currently offer.